Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following relentless airstrikes made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "the path to democracy".