Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."