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"I'll be sitting in this office by 2027," the Prime Minister declared, adding that if our interview went well, he might invite the interviewer into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

There is never truly downtime for prime ministers. In the hour before we sat down, Sir Keir had been in calls with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher what on earth had transpired in Venezuela, where his big friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently attacked and captured its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When our lengthy talk, which was far more extended than normal, had ended, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

Renewed Energy for the New Year

As the new year begins, Sir Keir seems to have had a degree of a reboot. Perhaps even just a bit of a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

This seemed to have resulted in better spirits than at the saggy conclusion of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they reckon his political fate are about to improve?

Internal Doubts

The uncomfortable reality for the PM is that a significant number of his colleagues believe he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would rather take a risk and oust him in 2026.

But Sir Keir was having none of it in the interview on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he insisted he'd be "judged at the poll", arguing nobody would strip his term from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK getting to No 10 could be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the fight of our lifetime and I aim to lead us," he said.

The May Elections

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a huge set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to protest, maybe too much, that they are concerning who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and unrelated to Westminster.

True – to some extent. But even though he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would resign, even if one of his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, should those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He attempted to account for his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was naturally impatient for things to get better. He sought to persuade me, and the public, that 2026 would be a change.

The economic situation would recover in the face of rising unemployment, he argued, when policies the government enacted during their initial turbulent year began to show results.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels ahead of the current target date of 2029, although he wouldn't put a firm date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a foregone conclusion, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western partners were now considering how to combine US and European forces to offer security for Ukraine – to safeguard a potential peace.

His core point is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

Political Challenges

The PM may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a some time – less tense, perhaps, with more time to talk.

But despite encountering demands from various quarters for a more decisive approach, with greater political direction, more urgency, more pace and more immediacy, his explanations were well-known ones.

Given that he is in such significant political peril, is a different approach required a new narrative?

No administration, and especially not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its as desired.

Sir Keir's problems are not only because government is challenging, but because he and his team have erred, including in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "delighted" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK after an controversy when comments he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is inviting obvious political dangers as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president entails a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a ex- human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be content with these events seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but the public "simply lack the entire story at the moment".

Some called for him to denounce it before the interview. And the government is expected to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the next few days.

And there has consistently been growing desire in the Labour ranks to reverse or renegotiate some of the results of Brexit.

The PM rejects he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer plan to move closer with the EU's single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will likely provoke accusations that he is reneging on his vow never to try to undo the choices that stemmed from Brexit.

A commitment to align with more of the single market will delight some on his own side, but it is easy fodder for Reform and the Conservatives to