Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.