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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers ascending in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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